As XML is just a syntax it is trivial to convert any LaTeX into XML just by creatimg a file of the form <latex>...
text of latex document with <
&
and >
replaced by <
&
>
....</latex>
The result is XML but perhaps not what you meant. This isn't just a silly example though, people do such translations to store blobs of TeX in XML databases.
Another conversion to XML can be got by running latex
to get dvi then using dvisvgm
to convert the result to SVG. Again this is XML but perhaps not the kind of XML you intended as it is positioning every character by fixed coordinate positions. It does however cope with a very wide range of TeX inputs.
If you need a conversion to something not unlike HTML. Say, XHTML for text, MathML for maths and SVG for any vector images included, then the issues relate to the nature of the HTML format: that it is expected to reflow in the client and use reader- rather than author-specified fonts in many cases, and that the rendering environment (even with javascript enabled) isn't as tightly bound to the programming structures as happens in TeX. The fact that that system uses an XML (or HTML) syntax rather than a backslash-and-brace syntax is the least of the issues involved in a translation.
If you do want to translate to XHTML+MathML, then LaTeXML is a good place to start,
\define
and\definestartstop
automatically insert these tags). Unless the macros used by plain TeX are redefined in terms of these tags, ConTeXt won't be able to give useful XML output.