Thanks for all your helpful comments.
I'll try to compose an answer from them and the article that is now reachable again (thanks @diabonas for noting that).
The way I see this now, binding correction depends too much on the actual binding to make any good guess without having a similar book at hand as @doncherry noted.
However, Markus Kohm, the author of the mentioned article, gives two basic estimations that can be done without knowing the specifics:
- Binding glue can take up as much as 1mm by itself
- With a good binding the correction should be no more than half the thickness of all pages, i.e. half the height of the stack of paper you want to bind.
Markus Kohm lists two other methods that can be done if you happen to have a book in a similar format at hand. In contrast to the method I posted in the question, this doesn't have to have the same page layout. I actually didn't quite understand how the first one should work, but thought I should list a rough translation for those that cannot reach the file or don't speak German:
You need a book with the same paper format as the papers you want bind.
Take a piece of paper that is twice this format and fold it down the middle.
Fold it up and down until the fold is worn out a bit.
Now open the book in the middle, firmly hold your page to the book and slam it shut without moving the page. The part of the page that sticks out of the book is your binding correction
For the other method you open the book in the center and put a ruler or piece of card board vertically in the center. Now push a piece of paper against the ruler and measure the part that sticks out over the pages of the book.